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Texas Motor Speedway will host the 2022 NASCAR All-Star Race on Sunday, with $1 million up for grabs. There is a unique qualifying format, with the race consisting of four stages with a pit stop competition in between the second and third stages. Kyle Larson, who won the race last year, is the 9-2 favorite in the latest 2022 NASCAR All-Star Race odds at Caesars Sportsbook. The green flag drops on the NASCAR All-Star Race 2022 at 8 p.m. ET on FS1 (stream now on FuboTV).

There are seven drivers priced inside of 10-1 to win the NASCAR All-Star Race 2022, including Kyle Busch at 7-1. Should you back him with your 2022 NASCAR All-Star Race bets? Before scouring the 2022 NASCAR All-Star Race starting lineup and making any 2022 NASCAR Texas predictions, be sure to see the latest 2022 NASCAR All-Star Race picks from SportsLine’s proven projection model.

Developed by daily Fantasy pro and SportsLine predictive data engineer Mike McClure, this proprietary NASCAR prediction model simulates every race 10,000 times, taking into account factors such as track history and recent results.

In the 2021 season, McClure nailed Martin Truex Jr. to win at Martinsville for a strong 3-1 payout. Then, it called Chase Elliott to win at Road America for a 5-2 payout. McClure’s model also called Larson’s win at Texas for an 11-4 payout and his win at Kansas for a 9-4 payout in back-to-back weeks before nailing Larson to win the season-finale in Phoenix to claim the 2021 NASCAR Cup Championship.

In total, it nailed five of Larson’s wins during a historic season and has also gone 15-9 on its head-to-head matchup predictions to start the 2022 season. Earlier this season it was high on Ross Chastain to win in Austin, giving him a far better shot to win than his 40-1 odds implied. Two weeks ago, the model was also high on Joey Logano before he won as a 15-1 underdog. Anyone who followed its lead on those plays saw huge returns on their NASCAR picks.

Now, the model simulated the 2022 NASCAR All-Star Race (see tickets at StubHub) 10,000 times. Head to SportsLine to see the complete projected 2022 NASCAR All-Star Race at Texas leaderboard.

Top 2022 NASCAR All-Star Race predictions

One surprise: the model is high on Joey Logano, even though he’s a 15-1 long shot in the latest 2022 NASCAR at Texas odds. He’s a target for anyone looking for a huge payday. Logano is one of seven drivers who is still racing full-time in NASCAR who has won the All-Star Race before.

He took the title in 2016, so he has experience winning this type of event. Logano started seventh and finished fourth in last year’s All-Star Race at Texas Motor Speedway, which bodes well for his chances to contend on Sunday. He began the 2022 season by winning the Busch Light Clash at The Coliseum. Logano also comes into this race in strong form after winning the Goodyear 400 earlier this month. He led 108 laps, moving up to seventh place in the NASCAR Cup Series standings.

And a massive shocker: William Byron, one of the Vegas favorites at 9-1, stumbles big-time and fails to crack the top 10. There are far better values in the 2022 NASCAR All-Star Race lineup. Byron is one of only two drivers (along with Ross Chastain) with two wins this season and that virtually guarantees his spot in the 2022 NASCAR Playoffs. However, he hasn’t been running particularly well of late.

Byron has finished outside the top 10 in each of his last five starts and has now been outside the top 10 in nine of the 13 total races this season. He’s also been outside the top 10 in four of his last six points races at Texas and finished a disappointing seventh despite leading 30 laps at the 2021 NASCAR All-Star Race.

How to make 2022 NASCAR Texas All-Star picks

The model is also targeting two other drivers with 2022 NASCAR at Texas odds of 15-1 or longer to make a serious run at the checkered flag. Anyone who backs these drivers could hit it big. You can see all of the model’s NASCAR picks over at SportsLine.

So who wins the NASCAR All-Star Race 2022? And which long shots make a run at the checkered flag? Check out the latest 2022 NASCAR at Texas odds below, then visit SportsLine now to see the full projected 2022 NASCAR All-Star Race leaderboard, all from the model that correctly predicted five of Kyle Larson’s wins last season.